January 31, 2017

Donald Trump: Tech giant Cisco joins other US companies in slamming travel ban

Global technology giant Cisco has joined other US companies in slamming Donald Trump's immigration ban, adding to criticism from the likes of Google, Apple and Microsoft in urging the Trump administration to reconsider the controversial travel measures.

President Trump's executive order has banned travel to the US from seven majority Muslim countries — Iran, Iraq, Somalia, Syria, Sudan, Libya and Yemen.

Cisco's Australia and New Zealand managing director Ken Boal told the ABC the ban goes against long-held polices for diversity, respect and inclusion.

"There is concern, there's no doubt about it. There's a global impact and our first concern is for our employees that might be affected," Mr Boal said.

"We take a big part of our workforce to the US every 12 months and we have regular meetings over there so the ability to participate in those are quite core to employment at a lot of tech companies.

"We support a diverse workforce. We believe in the necessity to ensure security but at the same time there's a range of measures that are already being taken."

Mr Boal said the US-headquartered Cisco — which has almost 72,000 staff worldwide — was working with other companies to lobby the White House to reconsider the travel bans.

"Quite frankly the entire industry has concerns about how we're going to work under this new environment," he said.

"It's something that I think we're going to have to learn to deal with as the whole geopolitical environment is active right now."

Earlier this week, Microsoft warned the measures could hurt key recruitment for research and development; Apple said the company would not exist without immigration, while Google has launched a $US2 billion fighting fund.

James and Lachlan Murdoch — the chief executive and chairman of 21st Century Fox respectively — have also criticised the travel ban.

"21st Century Fox is a global company proudly headquartered in the US, founded by — and comprising at all levels of the business — immigrants," according to an internal memo provided to Forbes Magazine.

"We deeply value diversity and believe immigration is an essential part of America's strength."

The memo also offers assistance including legal aid to 21st Century Fox employees caught up in the travel ban while stopping short of directly criticising Mr Trump.

Follow Peter Ryan on Twitter and on his Main Street blog.

Tasmania home to Australia's most affordable housing, report finds

For the price of one house in Sydney you could buy three in Tasmania, according to the state's Real Estate Institute (REI).

Despite recent concerns about the increasing cost of houses, Tasmania has consolidated its position as Australia's most affordable state for housing.

The latest Affordability Report, released by the Housing Industry Association (HIA), showed mortgage repayments compared to earnings made it more affordable to buy a house in Tasmania.

"Based on the typical size of mortgage repayments relative to earnings, home purchase in Tasmania remains much more affordable than in the seven other states," executive director Rick Sassin said.

"The purchase of a median-priced dwelling in Tasmania absorbs 23.8 per cent of average earnings, well below the 30 per cent threshold which is considered manageable from an affordability perspective."

Affordability in Hobart improved by 1.2 per cent during the December 2016 quarter and is Australia's most affordable capital city.

Tony Collidge from the Real Estate Institute of Tasmania has welcomed the findings.

"[While] a lot of the community yells out and says 'we'd like it to be cheaper', we're more than $100,000 away from our closest competitor at the moment, that being Adelaide," he said.

"You're looking at Sydney and Melbourne where Sydney now the median price is over $1 million and Melbourne's very quickly approaching $850,000 to $900,000.

"You look at Tassie at $365,000 being the median price, there is a significant difference there."

Mr Collidge said Tasmania was a great place to invest.

"You take a house in any area, you could multiply that by three, buy three of them [compared] to Sydney, you could buy two of them [compared] to Melbourne."

The HIA said the __news was a boost for the local economy.

"The housing market does make a substantial contribution to that internal sustainability of our economy so it's good to see housing flourish," Mr Sassin said.

"There have been some comments about the fact that house price growth [is] limiting people in the Tassie market, affordability has been an issue and this is further to reinforce that affordability is there, we are still the most affordable state in the nation."

What can you buy under $1m?

For comparison, in Sydney's CBD about $800,000 will buy you a "large", 64-square metre, one-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment.

In Melbourne, you can get two bedrooms and 88 square metres of floor space.

But in Hobart, that can buy you 253 square metres of floor space with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, a garden, in-ground pool and a spectacular water view on a quarter-acre block.

And you can still walk to work.

Fairy floss and Facebook: Millennials harness social media to build businesses

There is a new breed of entrepreneurs - they are millennials who, having grown up glued to their mobile phones and social media, are now harnessing that social reach to build viable businesses.

It is almost impossible to imagine starting a business without a bank loan, but now many young entrepreneurs are starting their businesses in their bedrooms with little to no money to begin with.

One of those people is 21-year-old Nathan Hunter, who came up with the idea for his fairy floss business Fluffe while at university, before launching in 2015, courting customers through Instagram, Facebook and Snapchat.

"I really fell in love with the idea of it - flavoured fairy floss - and how it could be done and that's how it started," he said.

"I never even gave a second thought to social media, the reason I actually got Instagram is because I was looking online, and they were just like social media is your best free marketing tool."

Mr Hunter initially posted photos of his fairy floss creations on his Instagram account, and now has 119,000 followers.

His products are a collection of pastel-coloured versions of the sugar-spun treat, as well as huge milkshakes topped with floss, lollies and chocolate.

It eventually captured the attention of local markets, where he began to sell them.

Influencers super-charge social media momentum

Through friends he eventually met Sydney 'influencers' with hundreds of thousands of followers, who would post photos of his products, exposing his work to vast numbers of new potential customers.

Influencers are people with a high number of followers and who are often paid by brands to create content that is distributed through their lucrative social media channels.

"Before this I didn't even know people made a living off Instagram," said Mr Hunter.

"I didn't know people had accounts that had hundreds of thousands of followers, so I think I was just in the right place in the right time."

Instagram has 7 million monthly active Australian users, while Snapchat has 4 million daily active users in Australia, according to the latest company statistics.

Australia had a smartphone population of 15 million in 2015, according to Deloitte.

The proliferation of social media means most companies are on Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and other platforms.

Those that are not often risk losing the ability to connect to their customers and, therefore, their relevancy to audiences, which often have short attention spans.

Mr Hunter now works with businesses in Sydney in cross-promotions, including monogrammed leather goods maker The Daily Edited, Myer, women's fashion brand Mimco and Bailey's.

"I find that more companies want to work with me, more higher profile companies because of the social media following," he said.

"So, socially, if they're doing an activation in public, they'll have me there because I can promote it on mine which will then get it out to more people of course."

As for the future, Mr Hunter is turning his focus to online sales, limited edition flavours each month and continuing to build his online community.

"I think I would love to have a lolly shop, a very cool lolly shop," he said.

"I'm planning it now, but I definitely don't have the funds to do what I would want to do right now."

Despite his growing customer base, Mr Hunter said he is not looking for investors, an idea that he said sort of traumatises him.

"I would hate to not be able to do something that I wanted to do because it would affect someone who has to say yes or no to it," he said.

"It's not what I should be doing from a business sense, but it's working for me so maybe it's a new type of business that we're living in now - how it's all online."

Broiler farmer turns to solar power for cost-effective electricity

Some farmers concerned about rising power prices are using advances in renewable energy to take their businesses off-grid, and say they're motivated as much by economics as environmental concern.

A broiler chicken farm in western Victoria has become the latest to use solar power to go completely off-grid.

The idea was born after two years of drought and poor harvests.

Owner and broad acre farmer Craig Henderson said it was about making it financially possible to keep his family farming into the future.

"We built the chicken sheds to even out the income after the last two years to give us a continuity of cash flow and to give us strength to maintain constant growth," he said.

"Hopefully over the next 20 years the broiler sheds will give the constant cash flow to expand."

The property outside Warracknabeal is 15 kilometres away from the nearest power source.

It was going to cost Mr Henderson more than $1 million to connect to the grid. Instead, he opted for solar panels with 100 kilowatts of battery storage.

So far he's installed two sheds at just over $250,000 and has plans to expand to 300 kilowatts of power as he builds more sheds.

Each shed houses 44,000 chickens and the temperature needs to be fully controlled for optimum growing conditions.

Mr Henderson said he was starting slowly because the project was essentially an experiment.

"Because no one else has done it we need to run a year and see where our weaknesses are," he said.

Mr Henderson believes his broiler farm is the first to go completely off-grid but says it will become more common in the future as the cost of power goes up.

"Short-term it's not as good as being on the grid but long-term it will be far better," he said.

"In two to three years, we'll be well in front and in five years' time we'll be that far in front it won't be funny."

As well as being completely off-grid, Mr Henderson boasts of his fully integrated and sustainable chicken farming operation.

"What we have is our sustainable energy, free-range broiler chickens and when we clean the sheds out we've got the litter to spread the litter on our paddocks," he said.

"Hopefully, in the long term it'll give us some good results on our cropping program."

Trans-Pacific Partnership: Turnbull Government policy consistency would not go astray after US tore up trade deal

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength. George Orwell.

They say truth is the first casualty in war. When it comes to trade, truth has been missing in action for quite some time.

In his first week as the US President, Donald Trump tore up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and threatened Mexico — via his press secretary Sean Spicer — with a 20 per cent border tax that would help pay for the wall along America's southern border.

His actions took many by surprise, including our own Government, despite his relentless campaigning on those very issues in the run-up to the US election.

Just hours after the Mexican border tax was announced, the new administration appeared to be on the back foot, hosing down the idea and describing it as a just one possible strategy.

Perhaps someone in the new administration twigged it might well be illegal under World Trade Organisation rules or that, ultimately, it would be US consumers that end up paying for the Mexican wall.

When it comes to muddled thinking and poor strategy, however, Mr Trump's decision to tear up the TPP was a bravura performance.

He has long railed against the influence of China, and vowed to counter its emerging regional dominance both as an economic and military superpower. What he failed to understand was the best way to achieve that would have been for America to ratify the TPP.

He was right to conclude the TPP was a sham. But not for the reasons he believes.

It was never about trade and certainly had nothing to do with free trade. It was a diplomatic and security agreement designed to hurt China by limiting free trade and specifically by deflecting China's trade to its near neighbours.

Australia runs trade balance in favour of the US

The TPP was a stinker for Australia. Negotiated by Labor and Coalition governments for the best part of a decade, it delivered almost no benefits and came saddled with a dreaded clause that would deliver foreign companies the power to seek compensation for any decision that might harm their business activities.

In effect, foreign commercial interests were to take precedence over the actions of democratically elected governments.

In its original form, the TPP was a bold US play to deliver greater patent rights and protections to American pharmaceutical companies — the kind of changes that are anti-competitive and trade restrictive.

All up, it would have been a pretty sweet deal for corporate US with the added strategic bonus of keeping China in check — exactly what Mr Trump claims to stand for.

Perhaps it was intended as comic relief. Whatever the reason, immediately after Mr Trump trashed the deal, Australia's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull indicated it was still a goer and that maybe, er, China should take America's place.

He was ably backed up by former prime minister Kevin Rudd — now president of the Asia Society.

If that strategy was designed to niggle Mr Trump, it did not work.

He is pretty busy right now, and in any case, the Donald thinks we are a terrific country. Really, really terrific. Such great people. Really, really great people.

And why wouldn't he? Mr Trump hates countries that sell more to the US than they buy. Luckily for us, or unluckily, depending on how you look at it, Australia is one of the few nations that runs a trade balance in favour of the US.

Free trade deal with US has hurt Australia: ANU

The US last year clocked up an $US11 billion ($A14.6 billion) trade surplus with us thanks to the US Australian Free Trade deal we signed 12 years ago that also was a stinker.

As the Australian National University's (ANU) Thomas Faunce reported, that deal was a major contributor to the 80 per cent blowout in the cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits System, which has put enormous strain on the federal budget.

According to the ANU's Crawford School, that pact has hurt Australia every year since it was signed, with $57 billion in lost and diverted trade in 2012 alone.

Strangely, that little nugget never seems to be mentioned by our leaders whenever they wax lyrical about the benefits of free trade deals.

Nor do they ever refer to the numerous reports and studies from their very own Productivity Commission that repeatedly call for greater caution in signing "free trade agreements" because they deliver few benefits and may "impose net costs on the community".

As the Productivity Commission consistently has pointed out, these agreements are Preferential Trade Agreements — deals that inhibit and distort free trade not promote it.

No wonder the Government refused point blank to let the Productivity Commission anywhere near the details of the TPP before we signed it.

The World Bank had a quick squiz at the TPP after the fact and rightly concluded it did little for Australia.

It found an annual benefit of about a half of one-tenth of 1 per cent of GDP a year — a finding then trade minister Andrew Robb not surprisingly rejected.

A scenario where everyone loses

The World Bank found countries outside the deal, like Thailand, would be hurt, primarily because TPP member nations would be penalised if they sourced materials from countries outside the agreement.

Hello! That's the reason China, our biggest trading partner, was excluded.

Mr Trump has indicated he plans to take the fight to China in a more direct way, with thinly veiled threats he would extend his border tax idea to Chinese imports, based on the spurious claim that China is a "currency manipulator" by keeping its currency artificially low.

It is true China is manipulating its currency but not in the way Mr Trump is portraying. In fact, it is the opposite.

Rather than depressing the renminbi to make itself more competitive and hurt the US, China is desperately trying to stop a rout by supporting its currency and limiting flood of capital fleeing the country.

Should Mr Trump take China on, it could spell disaster for the US and the global economy. US consumers will foot the bill through higher prices, they will have less cash to spend which will hurt corporate America.

Even if no-one retaliated, and that is doubtful, the border tax would push the US dollar higher, rendering America uncompetitive.

Either way, it is a scenario where everyone loses.

It is worth remembering China holds more than $1.46 trillion in US government debt, which could become a handy weapon in the event hostilities do break out.

The US does not have a monopoly on capriciousness.

In the same week Mr Turnbull suggested China took the US' place in the TPP, our very own Critical Infrastructure Centre came into being.

That is a body designed to protect Australian assets from foreigners (read China) and follows on from the Treasurer Scott Morrison's decision last year to ban a Chinese buyer from snapping up Ausgrid.

The Turnbull Government is right to be wary of an authoritarian, autocratic and undemocratic government attempting to secure vital assets for strategic rather than commercial interest. Greater scrutiny should have been imposed years ago.

But a little policy consistency would not go astray.

James Packer caught in middle of corruption inquiry into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

James Packer's lawyer asked about arranging citizenship or residency in Israel for the Australian billionaire, the country's Interior Minister says, in a move that could bring Mr Packer significant tax benefits.

Mr Packer has found himself caught in the middle of a major corruption inquiry that has rocked the Middle Eastern country.

His name has been splashed across headlines and in nightly TV reports. He is accused of giving lavish gifts to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his family.

Israel's Interior Minister told the ABC he met with Mr Packer's lawyer.

Mr Packer did not respond to 7.30's questions about residency, nor did he answer any questions about his relationship with Mr Netanyahu.

7.30 has no evidence to suggest Mr Packer tried to bribe anyone in Israel.

Packer bought home next door to Netanyahu

The relationship between one of Australia's richest men and the Prime Minister of Israel can be traced back to a star-studded dinner held in Mr Netanyahu's honour in March, 2014.

The evening's host was Hollywood producer and Israeli billionaire businessman Arnon Milchan. There — but hiding from the cameras — was the party's co-host, Mr Packer.

"Mr Milchan was the guy who brought him to Israel, who introduced him to the Prime Minister," Raviv Drucker, one of Israel's most high-profile investigative journalists, told 7.30.

"Milchan knew Mr Packer's father, so they are very close."

Mr Milchan was already part of a close circle of billionaires Mr Netanyahu surrounded himself with. Mr Packer soon became part of the pack.

His relationship with Mr Netanyahu quickly developed.

Mr Packer purchased a million-dollar beachfront mansion in Israel right next door to the private home of Mr Netanyahu, and began making substantial investments in Israel's booming tech market.

In March 2015, Mr Packer was a surprise special guest in the audience when Mr Netanyahu addressed the US Congress in Washington.

Mr Packer then appeared at another speech Mr Netanyahu gave to the UN General Assembly in New York later that year, standing with senior Israeli officials and the Netanyahu family.

Questions were being asked.

'A friend of the family'

A recent TV report by Drucker on Mr Packer's relationship with the Prime Minister sent shockwaves across Israel.

The report alleged Mr Packer showered lavish treatment on the Prime Minister's family, particularly on his 25-year-old son, Yair.

The report claimed Mr Packer gave Yair numerous free luxurious holidays at properties he owns and rents around the world.

A spokesperson for Mr Netanyahu told Channel 10 Israel Mr Packer was "a friend of the family" and Yair, "has the right to be hosted by friends".

A few weeks after Drucker's report, Israel's Attorney-General announced a corruption probe into the Prime Minister's dealings had been upgraded to a criminal investigation.

Since January 2, Mr Netanyahu has been questioned three times by police from the national anti-fraud unit, with the latest questioning taking place last Friday. Yair has reportedly also been questioned.

"Packer and his friend, Arnon Milchan … are paying together for all kinds of luxuries for the Prime Minister and his wife," Drucker told 7.30.

"Champagne, cigars, a gourmet chef that will come and prepare them all kinds of meals in their house.

"And they are paying together. Packer is involving and Milchan is involving."

Mr Netanyahu has been adamant there is nothing wrong with receiving gifts.

"What kind of a scandal is this? An entire investigation is being conducted on television. Every evening edited, cherry-picked transcripts and lies are spread regarding both matters at hand," he said.

Drucker said he expected Israeli authorities would want to question Mr Packer next time he was in the country.

"I'm not saying he will be in a position of a suspect. Maybe he will be in a position of a witness," he said.

Implications in Australia

People in Australia are watching the developments closely, as Mr Packer's position on the board of Crown Casinos could depend on what the Israeli authorities find.

"I've no doubt he's got the very best advisers in the world and I trust that they would be advising him to act very cautiously in relation to these matters," Anthony Whealy QC, of Transparency International, said.

"Because as the figurehead of the Crown organisation, those licences would be under attack if there were any personal wrongdoing on his part."

Independent senator Nick Xenophon said he would be surprised if there was not an Australian investigation into the allegations.

"It's been big __news in Israel, it also needs to be big __news here in Australia," Mr Xenophon said.

"Mr Packer needs to be given an opportunity to explain himself. But on the face of it, it would seem extraordinary if the AFP [Australian Federal Police] did not conduct a thorough investigation of these very serious allegations."

The AFP told 7.30 it did not confirm who it was investigating, but the ABC understands there is no active inquiry into Mr Packer's dealings in Israel.

Toyota Altona plant's closure leads to hundreds of job losses in component manufacturing

At least two car component manufacturers are set to close in the wake of Toyota's decision to cease manufacturing in Melbourne in October, meaning hundreds more jobs will be lost.

The 600 job losses are in addition to the 2,500 staff directly employed by Toyota who will be made redundant.

The ABC understands management at Toyota Boshoku, a car seat manufacturer in Derrimut in Melbourne's west, will announce on Friday all 350 workers will lose their jobs in October.

Croydon-based Denso in the city's east, which makes car air-conditioning units and ignition systems, has previously signalled it will sack 250 workers once Toyota pulls out.

"It's been going on for three to four years now," a worker at Toyota Boshuko said.

"Everybody's numb."

The worker, who did not want to be named, said many of the employees spoke English as a second language and would struggle to find work elsewhere.

"People didn't make an effort to speak English because their whole teams operated in their own languages," she said.

"But we'll worry about it as the closing date gets closer."

Manufacturers were waiting for Toyota to announce date

Components importer and manufacturer Toyota Tsusho confirmed to the ABC it would also have significant job losses because of Toyota's decision.

However a spokeswoman said the October date had given the company its workers some certainty about the timing.

Workers there are expected to learn their fate in the coming months, however they have been told the company will be downsizing.

Toyota had previously announced it would end manufacturing in Australia in 2017, but yesterday confirmed the date would be October 3.

Many car component manufacturers have been waiting for Toyota to confirm its end date before they made decisions around the future of their own companies.

The Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union (AMWU) said thousands of jobs from the component's industry would be cut over the coming weeks.

"Some companies are trying to diversify, but the majority will be closing," AMWU's Dave Smith said.

"The flow on effect will be huge."

January 29, 2017

Extra public spending to lift growth by half-point

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Extra public spending of 190 billion baht planned for the current fiscal year is expected to boost economic growth by 0.4-0.5 percentage points this year, the finance minister said on Friday.

"Growth may not increase much but we hope the country will be able to compete and people's lives will get better," Apisak Tantivorawong told parliament.

Most of the budget will be for investment spending in the provinces to boost the local economy.

The Finance Ministry is currently predicting economic growth of 3.4% for 2017 and will give a new forecast on Monday.

NLA approves B190bn fiscal budget hike

State revenue, loans to cover extra funds

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong listens during a __news conference in Bangkok on Friday. (Bloomberg photo)

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The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) on Friday passed in three straight readings the 190-billion-baht supplementary budget bill for the 2017 fiscal year where more than half of the fund was earmarked to finance investment in provincial clusters.

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong, Deputy Finance Minister Wisudhi Srisuphan and Deputy Interior Minister Sutee Markboon appeared before the NLA to defend the spending plan.

Mr Apisak said the 190-billion-baht supplementary budget was drawn up to speed up implementation of urgent policies to trigger economic activities and that the money would come from state revenues and loans.

Of the 190 billion baht, about 115 billion baht, would be allocated for local development of provincial clusters. The government was seeking to increase budgets for provincial clusters, hoping it would spur private sector investment.

The rest was broken up as follows: 15 billion baht for Village Fund development; 10 billion baht for boosting industrial competitiveness; 23 billion baht for reserve funds; and 27 billion baht to use as compensation in treasury reserves.

Mr Apisak told the NLA that the economy was expected to grow by 3-4% in 2017 thanks to an increase in public investments which would strengthen the domestic economy.

He said the mid-year expenditure plan was one of several mechanisms instrumental in helping the government achieve its goal as he urged NLA members to support the bill.

Several NLA members took turns discussing the supplementary budget bill.

Most concerns focused on transparent and efficient spending.

Some called on the government to set up a cross-sector committee to monitor the spending plan for local development of provincial clusters and make sure it would serve its purpose, and that investments reach the targets determined by the government.

NLA member Singsuek Singprai told the meeting that he was in support of the supplementary budget bill while pointing out that the spending was increasing the financial burden on the state.

Gen Singsuek called on government representatives to explain how it planned to manage the budget deficit and make sure it would not hurt fiscal stability. He also demanded to know the public debt and if the fiscal standing was worrisome.

Mr Apisak said the public debt would increase from 42% to 44% of GDP after the supplementary budget, which was still far below the fiscal stability threshold of 60%.

"That's why the government decided to draw the supplementary budget and seek loans of 160 billion baht. Here, we're not looking for an increase in GDP, which will be around 0.4%-0.5%, but we're hoping to increase competitiveness and improve the people's well-being.

"That's why the funds are being channeled to the clusters of provinces," he said.

The NLA voted 182 to pass the supplementary budget bill in its first reading with three abstentions. A full-House committee was set up to deliberate the bill section by section in the second reading and passed it without changes.

After five hours of deliberations, the lawmakers voted 163 in favour of passing the bill in the final reading with two abstentions.

Treasury, hospital plan first seniors' complex

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The Treasury Department has joined Mahidol University and its Ramathibodi Hospital in building a residential project for senior citizens in Bang Phli in Samut Prakan province.

Director-general Jakkrit Parapunthakul said on Friday his department would seek cabinet approval for the project in February so construction bids could begin soon.

He expects Thailand's first state-owned "senior complex" to be completed in two years after construction begins.

The complex, to be located on a state-owned 72-rai plot, will have three zones. The first comprises 1,000 apartments of 30-55 square metres each. Their prices would hinge on the designs to be submitted by winning contractors.

People aged 55 years or more can live there for 30 years. If they die before the contracts end, the apartments would be sold back at a pro-rated discount to the hospital, which will then renovate and sell them to other people.

Residents will have to pay a lump-sum fee of 1 million baht for the 30-year stay and a monthly rent of not less than 10,000 baht a month for services. However, these figures are not final as they will depend on the designs submitted by winning contractors. 

The second and third zones to be developed later are for the elderly who need assistance. They also comprise a Ramathibodi Hospital medical unit with equipment to take care of the elderly, to be financed from the hospital's budget. Construction should be completed in 3-4 years, Mr Jakkrit said.

Apart from the Bang Phli project, the department is planning similar projects in four provinces – Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Nakhon Nayok and Chon Buri -- totalling 400,000 units.

Trump's policies expected to boost Thai exports

Thai gems and jewellery are among exports expected to benefit from the policies of US President Donald Trump, according to the commerce minister. (Photo by Pattanapong Hirunard)

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United States President Donald Trump's policies should boost Thai exports to the US in areas such as automobiles and parts, seafood, fruit, gems, ornaments and rubber, Commerce Minister Apiradee Tantraporn said on Friday.

The US imports more automobiles and parts than it exports, the minister said. Prospects were bright for the Thai automotive industry.

She expected increased exports of canned and processed seafood and fruit, chilled and frozen prawns, rubber products, gems, jewellery and garments to the US.

These products were popular with the American middle-income consumers Mr Trump planned to support in terms of employment, income and economic status, Mrs Apiradee said.

The minister also said Mr Trump was likely to strictly enforce existing unilateral trade measures to protect US industries and reduce the trade deficit. This would probably target Mexico, Canada, Japan and China.

Chinese products made up 21% of US imports and the country posted a trade deficit of US$367.2 billion (12.95 trillion baht) in 2015, Mrs Apiradee said.

In 2016, Thai-US trade was worth 1.28 trillion baht, up 0.22% year-on-year. Thailand posted a trade surplus of 430.27 billion baht, she said.

US GDP growth slows

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WASHINGTON: The US economy lost momentum in the final three months of 2016, closing out a year in which growth was the weakest in five years.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of just 1.9% in the October-December period, a slowdown from 3.5% in the third quarter. GDP, the broadest measure of economic health, was held back by a jump in the trade deficit.

For the full year, the economy grew 1.6%. It was the worst showing since 2011 and down from 2.6% growth in 2015.

President Donald Trump has set a goal of doubling the growth rate through an ambitious stimulus programme featuring tax cuts, deregulation and higher infrastructure spending.

However, in a separate report, the Commerce Department said US businesses ramped up their investment in industrial machinery, semiconductors and other big-ticket items in December, lifting demand for factory goods.

Its measure that tracks business spending plans climbed 0.8% in December, after jumping 1.5% in the previous month.

Orders for all durable goods slipped 0.4%, mostly because of a sharp fall in demand for military aircraft, a volatile category. Excluding transport-related goods, orders rose 0.5%, the sixth straight increase.

The report adds to recent evidence that manufacturers are climbing out of a roughly two-year rut. A strong US dollar and falling oil and gas prices had hurt demand for factory products, as drillers ordered less steel pipe and other equipment. Yet demand has risen since oil prices have stabilised above $50 a barrel.

The power behind B.Grimm

Surviving the Asian financial crisis and scepticism in the boardroom, Preeyanart Soontornwata provides the glue for the Thai-based conglomerate. By Pawee Sirimai

"B.Grimm Power is my life achievement and I want it to stay that way, although one day I will not be working here anymore," Ms Preeyanart says.

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Some 20 years ago, when Preeyanart Soontornwata was in her thirties and joined B.Grimm Power Co Ltd as president and chief executive, it was a time of turmoil in Thailand.

The country was facing the worst financial crisis in its history. B.Grimm Power, a subsidiary of Thailand's oldest industrial conglomerate, B.Grimm Group, was in the process of building its first 166-megawatt power plant -- Amata B.Grimm Power 1 -- at Amata Nakorn Industrial Estate.

The company substantially increased its borrowing in US dollar terms for the project, coinciding with the baht's devaluation after being floated during the start of the crisis.

"I joined B.Grimm Power right before the 1997 financial crisis," Ms Preeyanart says. "And looking back at it now, I think the crisis changed me a lot in terms of how I managed the business."

Preeyanart Soontornwata joined B.Grimm Power when Thailand was suffering from the 1997 financial crisis.

During the crisis, banks refused to make additional loans to the company, and since Ms Preeyanart was also chief financial officer of B.Grimm Group, she had to help the company's subsidiaries negotiate with their suppliers and restructure their finances in order to survive.

"The crisis made me stronger and showed me how to protect our company," she says. "If there is another crisis in the future, we will not fear it."

Today, B.Grimm Power is recognised as one of the leading private power producers with total power-generating capacity of 1,627MW. The company wants to increase its capacity to 5,000MW in the next five years.

Recently, B.Grimm Power invested 8 billion baht in 15 solar power plants occupying 1,670 rai in four provinces, good for a combined generating output of 114.2MW.

In addition, the company has invested through four subsidiaries and joint ventures: B.Grimm Yanhee Solar Power Ltd, Solarwa Company Ltd, TPS Commercial Company Ltd and B.Grimm Solar Power Sakaeo Ltd.

It recently signed another contract to raise total capacity both domestically and overseas to 2,383MW.

The company is also in the process of filing an application to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, Ms Preeyanart says.

She is one of very few female executives in the power-generating sector.

"B.Grimm Power is my life achievement and I want it to stay that way, although one day I will not be working here anymore," Ms Preeyanart says.

She graduated with bachelor's and master's degrees from Chulalongkorn University and started working as an internal auditor for the Ocean Insurance Group before joining Diethelm Management Service Co as a finance and administration manager, her last stop before joining B.Grimm in 1992.

In 1992, she became chief financial officer of B.Grimm Group. In 1996, when the company started to diversify into power generation, she took a concurrent position as president of B.Grimm Power.

Ms Preeyanart says it was the vision of Harald Link, chief executive of B.Grimm Group and the immediate successor of the company's founder, who saw the necessity of seeking joint ventures with other large corporations and diversifying the business into the power sector, which improved the company's fortunes.

'The crisis made me stronger and showed me how to protect ourselves,' Ms Preeyanart says.

"I completely agreed with him that the power-generating business was the right way to go, because it can generate revenue in the long term and there were few competitors in the market," she says.

Diversifying into power generation presented a challenge for B.Grimm, which at the time had no experience in the sector, because of massive capital requirements. These conditions forced Ms Preeyanart to personally deal with several details to push forward the power initiative.

"And because everything was very new to me, it was both an exciting and stressful feeling at the same time," she says. "I just kept telling myself, 'I can do it! I can do it!' "

Ms Preeyanart says the secret to her success in management has been to put her heart into her work and understand the people she is working with. "For me, work is my life. It is not just my work."

She says the chief influence in forming her life philosophy was her role model, her father, a lawyer who worked in Phetchaburi province.

"He dedicated himself to his job, helping those less fortuna

te who were exploited by others in powerful positions," she says.

Her father valued integrity above everything else and despised corruption.

"One day he was shot dead by the local mafia," Ms Preeyanart says. "The reason, I believe, was a conflict of interest caused by his job."

"It changed my whole life and it taught me I have to fight to do things the right way. It changed me from a young shy girl who never strayed far from my mother to become a stronger person."

She says understanding others and how they think is crucial to her job, as she has a lot of contact with people in different positions, cultures and backgrounds.

Ms Preeyanart played a key role in founding the Amata B.Grimm Power Infrastructure Fund (ABPIF) in 2013.

B.Grimm Group has partnered with a number of foreign companies, and some of those alliances have continued, such as with KfW, the German government-owned development bank; multinational Siemens; and Japanese trading company Sumitomo.

"Back when I started, women were not very accepted in Thai management roles. This is still true now in some cultures," Ms Preeyanart says, adding that she had to work hard to prove her worth to the company's partners.

Her experience in a multicultural environment helped her succeed at B.Grimm Group, which was founded by a German but has been operating in the Thai culture for more than a century.

"To succeed in business, especially a large company that lasts for generations, technical knowledge alone won't help you achieve lasting results," Ms Preeyanart says. "There are a number of different aspects such as legal, environmental and finance that are very complicated and you need someone to help you on these matters."

She says one of the most important factors for her success was hav

Ms Preeyanart, B.Grimm Group CEO Harald Link (left) and employees work on a reforestation project.

ing "a commercial mind" and being able to bring out the best of everyone to help the company achieve its goals.

"In order to do that you'll need teamwork, which you can say is also my management style," she says. "Most people believe they're the best at their job, so as a leader you need to make them trust your decisions by making them feel invested in the outcome."

At every meeting, she encourages everyone to speak their minds to help the team make the right decision.

"I want it to be a collective decision that everyone agrees upon. I don't want anybody to bring up their opinion later," Ms Preeyanart says.

One of the concepts she always stresses when doing business is "no cheating" and how to set up a system to prevent cheating at the company.

Ms Preeyanart and B.Grimm staff held a Christmas party at The Babies' Home Rangsit.

"Each of our power plants is worth more than 5 billion baht. I think it is very tempting to cheat in the equipment-purchasing process," she says.

She set up a system of checks and balances to prevent fraud and corruption in equipment purchasing. Ms Preeyanart hopes it also fosters honesty and transparency in the company.

She says Mr Link is another role model for her because of the way he respects his employees, giving them the opportunity to do their job and making them feel like they are a part of the company's success.

He was the one who taught her the company's motto -- doing business with compassion -- and inspired her to do the same.

Ms Preeyanart says that while she works hard, she always finds the time to travel abroad, take a rest and learn about different cultures.

Ms Preeyanart says the secret to her success in management has been to put her heart into her work and understand the people she is working with.

"People in other countries have their own characteristics and working styles, and B.Grimm can sometimes fine-tune its style when partnering with foreign companies. My work requires a lot of contact with foreigners, including with our Japanese partner Sumitomo."

In her free time, Ms Preeyanart likes to read books and newspapers to catch up on what's happening in the world.

She is interested in learning about different kinds of people to help her better understand how to deal with them.

"Recently I have been interested in reading articles about Generation Y so I can understand how they think," she says.

This is important because B.Grimm Power regularly hires young talent and the company wants to groom them for leadership roles.

"I want the company to remain strong even after I retire, so I need to understand what people in the new generation think," Ms Preeyanart says.

January 23, 2017

China's questionable GDP numbers: Why does it even bother?

To the absolute surprise of no one, Chinese economic growth came in at an annualised growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2016.

There was a moderate surprise that annualised fourth quarter figure came in at 6.8 per cent, but not enough to shift sentiment significantly.

By happy coincidence the 2016 result not only lines up with President Xi Jinping's call at the World Economic Forum in Davos that it would be thereabouts, but also is right in the middle of the 6.5 to 7 per cent target band drummed up at the National People's Congress in March last year.

The quality of Chinese GDP data is often questioned, given the National Bureau of Statistics can pull together all the threads of the world's second biggest economy into a coherent narrative just three weeks after the quarter ends.

The admission this week from the boss of Liaoning province that the GDP books for his steel and coal-dominated jurisdiction had been cooked for years has not helped matters.

The National Audit Office found revenues from Liaoning's industries and state-owned enterprises were at least 20 per cent higher than what should have been reported between 2011 and 2014, with 2013 representing the peak in creative accounting for one area at 130 per cent over the odds.

To be fair, the practice appears to be frowned on.

The head of the NBS seems to be getting grumpy with this suspect reputation, warning local officials - who funnel the raw data to the central statisticians and whose chances of promotion are linked to meeting economic targets - dodgy accounting is a very serious offence and culprits would be punished.

The old boss in Liaoning who was allegedly responsible for overstating the industriousness of his patch has been arrested and is facing a trial later this month.

Liaoning, now equipped with a fresh and more credible approach to statistics, is the first and still only province to have fessed up to sliding into recession in 2016.

China's growth rate slows as economy grows

Despite the dubious nature of the numbers a trend has been established; China's economic growth is slowing.

For the past six years, since GDP growth came in at 10.6 per cent in 2010, the economy has been steadily decelerating.

Growth last year was slower than at any time since 1990.

Much of that is due to the fact that the economy is that much bigger.

However, authorities are quite accepting of the inevitability of the situation.

As the chief of China's National Development and Reform Commission, Xu Shaoshi, recently pointed out, a 6.7 per cent - or 5 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) - expansion in 2016 equated to growth of 10 per cent in 2011.

A new target of 6.5 per cent expected for 2017

Reuters reported this week a closed door meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference has targeted GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in 2017 - another stepdown in pace.

Such a target would be keeping with China's central bank signalling it was shifting away from stimulating the economy to a "neutral" monetary policy late last year.

The implication of that change in stance is there is a determination by authorities to deflate asset bubbles and rein-in burgeoning debt.

The shift to "neutral"

Inflation is starting to pick up. Producer prices jumped by an unexpectedly high annual rate of 5.5 per cent last month, driven a surge in coal, steel and metal prices.

The steady depreciation of the Chinese currency has also played its part, as has a booming, debt-financed property market.

All of this points to more buoyant industrial profits, which should help support growth.

However, even managing a further slowdown to 6.5 per cent would still require a substantial contribution from the state, despite its now "neutral" stance.

The big contributors to growth in 2016 - housing and automobiles - benefited from various stimulatory packages, such as tax discounts on low-emission cars.

Together they account for more than 15 per cent of GDP, so any slippage - such as more bubble-busting regulations in the property market - would have a very large impact on China's ability to hit its self-imposed target.

Standing still will cost more

A recent note from Societe Generale's China economist Wei Yao pointed out, while the fiscal push from the Government last year was already very sizeable, it will need to be even bigger to maintain growth at 6.5 per cent in 2017.

Something in the order of 14 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion) in new debt financing for houses and automobiles would be needed, according to Yao.

To keep up appearances of 6.5 per cent growth, Yao argued debt-to-GDP would rise from 250 per cent in 2015, to around 270 per cent at the start of 2017, and onwards and upwards to an unnerving 300 per cent in two years.

This accelerated stimulus just to stay still has potentially serious consequences.

"Allocating a disproportionally large share of financial resources to state-led investment crowds out private sector investment and drags down the future return on capital," Yao wrote.

"Moreover, this arbitrary target also discourages the necessary structural adjustments that could bring near-term pain, the lack of which further bogs down the efficiency of capital allocation and future economic return."

Work by another investment bank, HSBC, found while state-owned enterprises account for around half of all debt in China's economy, they produce less than one-third of total industrial output and employ only 15 per cent of the urban workforce.

However, shedding some of the "deadweight" in the sector will cost jobs and risk the prized goal of "social stability".

The slightly better than expected fourth quarter GDP, and impression that the economy has at least steadied, gives authorities a bit more latitude to tackle spiralling debt, run away property prices and inefficient state owned enterprises.

Is a growth target even needed?

The new official growth target is expected to be trotted out at the National People's Congress in March.

The benchmark of an average GDP growth of 6.5 per cent until at least 2020 has been manufactured from China's stated aim to double GDP per capita over the decade.

While the arbitrary target remains a fundamental tenet of China's centrally planned economy to build and "a harmonious socialist society", Yao believes it will sooner or later have to be ditched.

"The harm of keeping it is all too apparent, for it has become not only an impediment to the necessary structural adjustments but also a culprit behind rapidly rising debt risk," she said.

"In any event, we will know what growth rate Chinese leadership actually thinks is necessary for social stability, when the true test of growth deceleration arrives later in 2017."

Sydney needs more hotels, cruise ports, jobs to support tourism, academic says

As the shock of Mike Baird's retirement as premier of New South Wales settles, attention is turning to his likely replacement Gladys Berejiklian.

While she remained tight-lipped about her policy agenda on Friday, one expert has suggested that improving the city for tourists should be one of the top priorities for the next leader.

David Beirman, a senior lecturer in tourism at the University of Technology Sydney, said the growth of tourism to Australia and particularly to Sydney in the past year meant more needed to be done to support the industry.

"When we're doing such a great job in tourism to attract people, we need to make sure we have the infrastructure to cater for them," he said.

"Australia's inbound tourism growth is almost triple the world average.

"That growth has been phenomenal."

According to a report by Tourism Australia, there were 8.2 million visitors last year — an 11.4 per cent increase on the year before.

The main source of tourists came from north-east and south-east Asia; with 1.2 million visitors from China, as well as New Zealand, Japan, Korea, India and the United States.

In the year ending September 2016, there were 29.1 million visitors to NSW alone, bringing in $16.5 billion.

Tourism Research Australia noted that an increase in domestic tourism growth was "partly due to travellers switching overseas travel for domestic holidays".

High-speed rail link

Mr Beirman said it was time state, federal and local governments made a decision to build a high-speed rail link between Brisbane and Melbourne via Sydney.

While it has long been debated, he said a train would alleviate stress on the major airports and increase domestic travel for Australians as well as international tourists.

"A lot of our airports have done a great job to bring in more aircraft," Mr Beirman said.

"But Sydney and Melbourne are the most flown to areas ... and, if given the choice, I think a lot of people would take high-speed rail."

"We've really spent too much time talking about it."

Increase hotels and ports

While Mr Beirman acknowledged the NSW Government had developed "fantastic infrastructure for business" such as the new International Convention Centre, there was a shortage of accommodation for business tourists.

He said the "astronomical prices" of top-ranked hotels in the city was "a big problem", and that more four and five-star hotels needed to be built.

The booming cruise industry in Sydney was also another area that needed to be acknowledged.

The cruise industry grows 10 per cent every year, Mr Beirman said, and the two major cruise ports at White Bay and Circular Quay were struggling to cope.

"We're running out of space to park cruise ships, and while the demand is growing we desperately need a third terminal in a part of Sydney where tourists are going to say, 'wow, we've arrived in Sydney'," he said.

Filling more jobs

Mr Beirman said there were thousands of jobs in the tourism industry that needed to be filled, citing a Tourism Australia report that showed the country had a skill shortage of 38,000 jobs a year ago.

Many tourism jobs were currently being filled by foreign workers on 457 or holiday visas, he said.

"Part of the reason for that is that a lot of tourism jobs are seasonal and not many people want to do seasonal jobs.

"Ideally, what the tourists want is not being served by people from other countries, but to get their hospitality services from Australians who ideally speak other languages.

"We do really need to develop more home-based tourism professionals."

Landholders open up farms to sharing economy as campers look for new experiences

Farmers across the country are taking down the 'no trespassing' sign on the farm gate and embracing the sharing economy.

Digital start-up Youcamp is making a play to change the way people think about camping by offering travellers the chance to stay on farms.

Glenda Phin has had campers stay on her property at Turlinjah on the New South Wales south coast, among her chickens, pigs and beef cattle.

"Most people are looking for an alternative form of accommodation," she said.

"Somewhere where they can go and experience parts of Australia that normally you wouldn't be able to, and somewhere possibly a little bit secluded so they can have some time out."

James and Prue Woodford created Youcamp around a campfire in 2013 in order to connect travellers and private landholders.

Rather than make comparisons to Airbnb, Mr Woodford said Youcamp was more like a matchmaker.

"It's a dating agency for travellers and landholders, and I know that sounds a bit glib, but actually that's what it really is," he said.

"We've got these campers who are looking for special things like being able to take the dog, have a campfire.

"Sometimes they want to be noisy, sometimes they want absolute seclusion.

"They can actually put those criteria into a search engine and it will pop up with the landholder that offers those particular categories, so it does actually operate a lot like a dating agency."

Different council regulations a challenge

While there is a growing demand for the service, local councils take different approaches to regulating camping on farm properties.

"We take a very clear line that we believe this sector absolutely has to be regulated," Mr Woodford said.

"The current situation is that across Australia, basically every council in every state takes a different approach.

"For example, in New South Wales we have a primitive camping regulation, which theoretically should make it quite easy.

"But what actually ends up happening on the ground is that if you've got a particular council or even just a particular council officer who doesn't like the idea of this, that can make life quite difficult for the landholders."

The New South Wales Business Chamber has previously raised concerns that start-ups like Youcamp are operating on an uneven playing field.

Mr Woodford rejects suggestions that the model will hurt established caravan parks and tourist areas.

"I don't think that is the case. In my view, if you were to go right now to any of the actual public camping grounds or van parks, they are at absolute capacity," he said.

"No matter where people are staying, they are still going into town to buy groceries, beer, bait, taking the kids to go and see a movie.

"No matter where they staying they're still bringing money into these local economies."

Mr Woodford said the number one goal was to "get the regulations to catch up with what people are doing".

"The inescapable reality is that people are starting to vote with their feet," he said.

"In the same way that you know you can't put your fingers in your ears and close your eyes and pretend that there's no such thing as Uber or Airbnb, you also can't pretend that people don't want a really great camping experience."

Timber supply shortage at Australia's largest hardwood sawmill sparks push to increase plantation timber

A forestry expert says the Victorian timber industry could be at risk of collapse after decades of mismanagement of native resources.

The owner of Australia's largest hardwood sawmill in Heyfield in Victoria's Gippsland region announced last week it would have no choice but to shut down because it could not guarantee timber supply.

Australian Sustainable Hardwoods employs about 250 workers and processes about 150,000 cubic metres of timber each year, but it has been unable to secure that level of timber from its state-owned supplier VicForests.

VicForests general manager Nathan Trushell told ABC Radio the company simply did not have the resources to fulfil that contract.

Australian National University professor David Lindenmayer said the supply issue proved the need to replace native logging with plantation timber.

As part of the School of Ecology and Conservation Science, Professor Lindenmayer has studied forest ecosystems and the effects of logging and fire in the Central Highlands of Victoria for more than 30 years.

He said the forest in that region had been "radically overcut" for decades.

"Successive governments have committed to too much logging," he said.

"They haven't taken into account that large amounts of that forest will burn naturally, as we saw in 2009 and 1983."

But Professor Lindenmayer said the failure to manage the forest resource had resulted in the potential closure of the Australian Sustainable Hardwoods sawmill.

"[There's] not enough timber and essentially a sawmilling industry and a paper industry that's going to collapse," he said, adding that the solution to the supply issue was to replace native forest logging with plantation timber.

He said there were plantation resources available, and it was far more sustainable than native timber logging.

"There is simply not enough timber left to sustain the sawmilling industry at the level of cut at the moment," Professor Lindenmayer said.

"People need to realise the way the forest is now shaped, we have to cut 10 trees to get one saw log."

Plantation transition impossible

Victorian Association of Forestry Industries chief executive officer Tim Johnston said consumer demand for certain products made it impossible to transition to an entirely plantation-based timber industry.

Mr Johnston said the plantation estate and the native forestry estate were two "separate and distinct" resources.

"It is not a case of either-or; we need both resources in the product mix to serve the market demand," he said.

Mr Johnston said consumers demanded both resources, which were used in different goods.

He said timber from native forest plantations was used in products like high-end flooring, stairs and window frames.

"The species and properties of various timbers are suitable for some uses, but not for all uses," he said.

"To say 'we'll just use plantation resources only' doesn't recognise that timber from native forests provides for particular products that the consumers are asking for."

Mr Johnston said he would not like to comment on the contract arrangement between Australian Sustainable Hardwoods and VicForests.

But he said issues of oversupply could be solved by being "creative around the resource mix".

"There's constant work going on in relation to using composites," Mr Johnston said.

"But obviously that doesn't change overnight and to make those changes, there need to be investment decisions."

Donald Trump becomes the single biggest global market influence

We determine how much something is worth by placing a price tag on it. And you can be sure that when vast amounts of money move in a particular direction... somewhere, somehow, a powerful person, or group of powerful people, have made an important decision about something.

I've been told by numerous Wall Street traders recently that hundreds of billions of dollars are now on the move. And that's just the stock market. If you include bond trading, you can take that figure up to a trillion dollars.

Donald Trump has become the single biggest market influencer of our time.

So how is he doing it? Will it continue in the weeks and months ahead? And what can ordinary folk do to hedge, or insure, themselves against this force?

Thatcher, Draghi and three Federal Reserve chairs

The list of market influencers is distinguished. To find a conservative politician as economically and politically polarising as Donald Trump, you have to go back to the 1980s in Britain with Margaret Thatcher.

However, even she ultimately failed to build a grass-roots investment revolution. Early on in her prime ministership she stated that she wanted a society where "owning shares is as common as having a car".

She managed to get around a quarter of the population invested, which is impressive, but that later dropped to a little over 10 per cent.

Like Mr Trump, she was also revolutionary in her Thatcherist politics and presided over a stock market boom, but the latter was more of a global phenomenon.

The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is also powerful. He convinced an entire monetary union that he would do "whatever it takes" to hold the eurozone together.

That's impressive. But you see Mario Draghi's reign has been dominated by reactionary policies, rather than initiative.

He's a financial problem solver, rather than an engineer.

Then there's the three Federal Reserve chairs that were in office in the lead up to and during the financial crisis: Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

All have been able to move markets. Ben Bernanke infamously sparked the 'taper tantrum' - causing an enormous rush of funds out of stocks as traders feared the end of the easy money that had artificially propped up the market up until that point.

No one, though, has consistently moved markets with single tweets and half sentences like Donald Trump.

Trump track record of market moves

On the day he won the election, the stock market experienced one of its biggest swings in recent memory.

At first Donald Trump's election was considered bad news.

The ASX was down 2 per cent, the S&P futures - an overnight predictor of what Wall Street will do - was down 4.8 per cent, Japan's Nikkei had tumbled 5 per cent, and the Mexican peso had crashed against the greenback.

By the following day, markets had decided to bet on the successful implementation of his stimulus package.

That was partly because Donald Trump appeared more presidential and considered during his acceptance speech.

As of late last week, Wall Street's benchmark index, the S&P 500, was up 6 per cent since the election.

That's highly unusual during a presidential transition. It's also directly related to the incoming president himself. Various other press reports have also referenced the fact that US stocks rose on inauguration day.

That hasn't happened since JFK was sworn in.

Perhaps one of the most acute examples of Mr Trump's influence came with comments he directed towards the defence contractor, Lockheed Martin. It's not a small company.

It has a US market capitalisation of over $US75 billion.

In a tweet, President Trump made reference to the fact the company's costs were "out of control". The stock then slumped nearly 3 per cent.

He has moved the US dollar, the Australian dollar, the Mexican peso and bond markets with simple phrases - the most recent one being when he said the higher dollar was "killing US manufacturing".

That sent the greenback tumbling. It's extraordinary.

How does he do it?

Here's what you need to know about his method: Donald Trump is both unconventional and, in effect, a-political.

He's unconventional because he doesn't use established channels, and methods of communication, to deliver his thoughts on issues.

That means that President Trump has the ability to surprise. That in itself, coming from a position of such power, has enormous potential to move markets.

Crucially, Donald Trump is also non-partisan.

I have to be a little careful in saying that because of course he is now a leader of the Republican Party. He didn't, however, emerge from the Republican movement. Most leaders of nations are there by default.

They are leaders of political parties that have the ability to form government. Donald Trump doesn't fit into that category neatly.

He created his own popularity, and with that came a power base. He doesn't yet appear to be constrained by party allegiances - if anything his party has had to follow him.

So he has the power to make some things happen without the normal constraints.

He's an entirely different kind of political beast, or as one trader recently put it, is just completely belligerent. That gives him enormous market influence and power.

Will his power endure?

So the big question is, how long will Donald Trump's influence over the market remain with us? The answer is as long as he's in power.

The S&P 500's 6.2 per cent gain since the election is one of the best performances for the American stock market for any presidential transition period of the modern era.

Timothy Anderson is one of my Wall Street contacts. He said the market's now looking for "phase two" of the Trump rally.

Mr Anderson said the market loves Donald Trump's promises of tax cuts and government stimulus spending - and the business confidence it's generating.

Unfortunately, there has been absolutely no detail about his plans since they were announced.

I guess that helps to explain why the market hasn't been able crack the key 20,000 point level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average just yet.

If his plans come to fruition, the market will rise. If they fail, the market will fall.

In the meantime, markets will swing depending on how traders view the likelihood of either of those events happening. The market will largely determine those views based on what Trump says, and what he tweets.

Is there any Trump insurance?

James Rosenberg is a private client adviser with Baillieu Holst. That means wealthy people pay money for his advice on where to put their money.

He told me recently that, for the foreseeable future, he's advised his clients to put more money in cash.

You see you could ride the Trump stock market rally, if and when it eventually picks up again, but who's to say it will and, if it does, whether it won't come crashing down in an instant.

Trump's influence on the markets is extraordinary, and in some respects unprecedented, but there's one obvious flaw in its make-up - it hasn't yet proved sustainable.

That's arguably the most important characteristic of any kind of influence.

Personal finances: There's no time like the present to improve your financial health

Another year has begun and many people will have made resolutions to make 2017 the year to get fit, stop smoking, work harder or take that overseas holiday.

But how many have decided to make 2017 the year to start getting their finances in great shape?

The pressures of 21st century living can be overwhelming as we wonder how we will ever get ahead.

However, if you're prepared to be disciplined, there are some relatively simple things you can do to get into a position where you can start saving for the things you really want in life.

The reality for most of us in an environment where inflation is virtually zero and wages growth is pretty much non-existent is that, unless you win the lottery or receive a big inheritance, you won't be earning much more at the end of the year than you do now.

The trick, therefore, will be to make better use of what you've got, and the first step to doing that will be to find out where your money is going.

For that you'll need to do a budget. But don't worry. If figures aren't your thing, thanks to modern technology, a budget doesn't have to be daunting.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has an excellent and very comprehensive budget planner on its MoneySmart website.

Just plug in the numbers and it will do the rest.

One of the strengths of the MoneySmart budget planner is that it quickly converts weekly spending into monthly or annual.

So, for example, those two coffees you buy every day, which cost $30 a week, add up to $1,440 over the course of a 48-week working year.

And that's not to mention money spent on meals, clothes, visits to the hairdresser, entertainment, holidays and so on, which may not seem much at the time, but over the course of a year can be many thousands of dollars.

You may not want to change a thing, but doing a budget will tell you exactly what you're spending and where.

If you need to spend less, your budget will allow you to see where it can be done.

But, make sure your budget includes ALL your outgoings. It might be worthwhile keeping a spending diary for a few months to ensure the numbers in your budget are accurate.

Include everything, right down to the last packet of Lifesavers.

Live within your means

The next point is obvious, but can be much harder, and that is to live within your means - i.e. stop using the credit card.

We all know that credit card debt must be repaid and that interest rates on credit cards are enormous.

The difficult part is saying 'no' when you want to buy something now that you can't really afford.

It may mean going without for a few weeks or months while you save up and pay cash, but financially you'll be much better off.

Getting rid of your credit card debt should be one of your highest priorities for 2017.

Easier said than done I hear you say, especially when the big bills start pouring in, such as car registration and insurance, house insurance, holidays, Christmas bills, etc.

This is where discipline and your budget come in.

If you have accurately put all those big expenditures into your budget you can work out how much you need to save throughout the year to cover them.

You can then put the money aside each week or month, but it may mean having to make some spending choices.

Other ways to save

A few other suggestions for improving your financial health in 2017:

  • Pay all your bills on time - don't incur late fees as they all add up
  • If you're a home buyer, make sure your financial institution is giving you the best deal on your mortgage rate (even if it means taking your business somewhere else)
  • Check your savings accounts. Are you paying unnecessary fees? Are you being paid a competitive interest rate? Would you be better off locking away some money in a term deposit?
  • Consider salary sacrificing into superannuation, you only pay 15 per cent tax on the money that goes into super
  • If you're eligible and can afford it, put an extra $1,000 in after tax money into your super fund and the Government will give you $500 on top of that, and with the benefit of compounding over your working life that can add up to a lot of money for your retirement.

So how will you know if your 2017 financial fitness plan has been successful?

Humans are not companies where the only goal is to maximise profits. Qualitative factors including happiness and enjoyment play a big part.

But one thing is true for all of us - debts have to be repaid.

So if your debts at the end of 2017 are significantly less than they are now (unless you buy a house this year), and you are paying all your bills in cash and on time, you will probably have done well.

This is general advice only. For detailed personal advice you should see a qualified practitioner who knows your financial circumstances.

BuiltonCorp: WA homeowners hit as builder placed into voluntary administration

Work has stopped on about 130 residential home building sites as Perth builder BuiltonCorp is placed into voluntary administration.

Administrators Con Cordis have announced the company owes about $16 million to 350 unsecured creditors, mostly subcontractors.

They also said 38 jobs at the company had been axed, and a priority would be to return any unpaid entitlements to those workers.

The administrators were also appointed to Builton Group, Builton Property Holdings and Aspireon Homes.

"As we were only appointed yesterday, we are still in the process of investigating the companies' financial positions, but what is clear is that the companies are unable to continue to trade," Cor Cordis partner Dino Travaglini said.

Mr Travaglini said it appeared most of the losses had come from the company's commercial building operations.

BuiltonCorp Pty Ltd had a turnover last financial year of $80 million.

WA building industry 'on its knees'

Owner of Anstey Cabinets Dennis te Wierik told ABC Radio Perth the move would immediately result in a 50 to 70 per cent drop in his work turnover.

"It means that last week I had to let six people go pretty much instantly. Awful, awful. It's not always about the amount of money you are going to lose, it's also about the impact that it has on you," he said.

"I'm disappointed that I was led astray and was assured things were OK."

Mr te Wierik said the building industry in Western Australia was struggling.

"The building industry in WA isn't well ... it is on its knees," he said.

On Monday, Commsec's State of the States report ranked WA in last place on eight indicators including economic growth and housing.

WA Building Commissioner Peter Gow said the housing industry had come down from a peak of about 30,000 starts per year three years ago, to less than 20,000 now.

"That's putting more pressure on builders, their subcontractors and suppliers than usual," he said.

"We think there is a greater chance of insolvency in the industry generally."

Mark Kelly is building a "downsize" home with Platinum Homes, a company which is part of the BuiltonCorp group, and is worried about securing a high-quality replacement builder.

"We want to have a quality built home. We are obviously not sure what is going to happen at this point," he said.

The Building Commission issued a warning about BuiltonCorp on Friday after receiving notification from the company that it would likely be placed into voluntary administration.

Hopes insurance will cover homeowners

Mr Gow believes most affected BuiltonCorp home owners will be covered by home indemnity insurance.

"Typically the insurance will cover it, and QBE will work with the home owners to identity a potential builder ... then the insurance will cover the difference in cost between what it would have cost had there been no insolvency and the final cost of completing the build," he said.

"There is always a possibility that the administrators may be in a position to finish off some contracts particularly those that are close to completion."

Mr Gow said for multi-unit developments, deposits should be able to be recovered from a trust account.

"It will be very much up to the administrators to find a way to complete the projects," he said.

The company has not answered its office phone number or responded to inquiries by the ABC.

Wall Street down on Donald Trump's TPP move

Global markets have fallen after US President Donald Trump formally withdrew the US from the 12-country trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Mr Trump's tough stance on trade saw global stock markets fall and increased demand for safe haven assets like gold and bonds in the absence of major economic data releases.

The Dow Jones came off its lows to in late trade and the S&P 500 fell to a three-week low.

Lisa Kopp, head of traditional investments at US Bank Wealth Management, said stock markets were coming back down to earth after the Trump rally.

"There was that huge rally post-election and things really were running on optimism," she said.

"What you're seeing now is people coming back to the idea that the policies aren't exactly clear … and [Trump's] ability to actually push everything through exactly the way he wants is uncertain, " she said.

In meetings with US business leaders, Mr Trump repeated pledges to cut regulations by 75 per cent and to cut taxes for companies and the middle class by 15 per cent to 25 per cent.

He again said he would impose a "substantial border tax" on imports entering the country in order to encourage companies to make products in the US.

Mr Trump also plans to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with partners Canada and Mexico.

Telsa boss Elon Musk, Marillyn Hewson of Lockheed Martin, and Ford president and chief executive Mark Fields were among business leaders who attended the meeting.

Mr Fields said the meeting was very positive.

On Wall Street, Qualcomm fell 12 per cent after Apple said it will sue the chipmaker for $US1 billion.

Stocks were also in the red in Europe, dropping to the lowest level so far in 2017 as the Trump rally fizzled out.

But futures trade in Australia has defied the trend on overseas markets with the ASX SPI 200 up 0.3 per cent.

Westpac economists noted that markets continued the heavy tone set in Japan and Australia yesterday.

"Ending of current NAFTA and trade comments, including "very major" border taxes for corporates may not be surprises but triggered further risk position unwinding," they said.

"It was notable that Trump's reference to overall large tax cuts had little market impact."

The US dollar also felt the brunt of the worries about Donald Trump's administration.

It fell to the lowest level in seven weeks against a basket of currencies on concerns about Mr Trump's tough stance on trade.

The slide pushed the Australian dollar to nearly 76 US cents but it could not sustain the rise.

The lower greenback and worries about Mr Trump's economic policies bolstered gold to a two-month high as investors looked for a safe haven.

Oil prices fell back after an increase in drilling rigs in the US which could hinder the impact of production cuts by major producers.

Virtual Reality: Imagine being able to explore a new house without leaving your couch

When you think of virtual reality, you think of fancy headsets used for gaming and entertainment, but what if the technology could be applied to make life decisions, such as building a house, easier?

That is one hope of architecture firm Ridley and Co, based in Sydney, which has a dedicated VR lab.

"Day to day we create 3D models of buildings and we use those models for documentation for builders to be able to build and [we thought] why can't we chuck the buildings into the app and actually walk around, and that was the beginning for me in terms of my interest," Mr Singh told ABC News.

Mr Singh formally trained as an architect and is now working as project coordinator for Ridley.

"[We are] putting the model into a gaming engine and allowing people to actually immerse themselves within it," he said.

"Recently we took the model we were working on here in Sydney and the guys in Manilla modelled it up in very high detail.

"We put it into a gaming engine, and putting consultants inside, and he was blown away, he was walking around, teleporting around the model, looking at aspects of design, way more spatial awareness as well."

Assists planning and remote buyers

The technology can help people envision what their house will look like, and also help with planning - for instance, how much sunlight and at what angle the sun may shine through a window.

For buyers overseas, it offers a chance to virtually experience and explore homes without physically being there.

Real estate brokers have increasingly turned to VR to market houses using mock-ups.

Mr Singh was interested in VR and undertook a virtual reality design course through Academy XI.

"That was my first exposure to VR and that's essentially when I started to realise the power that this platform, this technology could have in the construction industry in what we do in day to day in projects from the beginning of the design of a project all the way through to the construction of the project," he said.

Though relatively nascent, the VR sector has increasingly entered the mainstream market, with PlayStation, HTC and Samsung all providing products in VR technology.

Headsets can still be expensive, with some costing in the thousands of dollars, but technology analyst firm Telsyte has forecast that by 2020 around 22.3 per cent of households would own a VR unit.

Juan Gonzalez, growth marketing lead at Academy XI, said different platforms - including Facebook, WordPress and YouTube - are allowing people to share and consume VR more and more.

"Part of the main thing we're trying to teach people is user centric design, and to really build empathy into the businesses and products into whatever they do, it's about people first," Mr Gonzalez said.

"We are at the point now where even the little guy can punch above their weight and get their message across, because we can make people experience stuff and that is something we haven't had the power to [before]."

TPP: Government scrambles to salvage Trans-Pacific Partnership after Donald Trump pulls US out

The Federal Government is scrambling to rethink the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Asian trade deal.

Now Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is instead hoping the remaining 11 countries can salvage the deal, though he said there was potential for the US to return to the table in the future.

Mr Trump signed an executive order overnight to pull the US out of the 12-country agreement, which could have solidified his country's leadership in the Asia-Pacific.

Mr Trump described the deal — which would have covered nearly 40 per cent of the global economy — as a "rape" of his country.

Mr Turnbull said the withdrawal was a "big loss", but not necessarily the end of the deal.

"It is possible that US policy could change over time on this, as it has done on other trade deals," he said.

"There is also the opportunity for the TPP to proceed without the United States. I've had active discussions with other leaders as recently as last night."

The Government had been pushing hard for Parliament to confirm the deal as soon as possible, but Trade Minister Steve Ciobo now said the Government would keep its options open.

"It is a case of being an ongoing discussion and obviously when the time is right, we'll have a look at the best way forward," he said.

"We are not going to walk away from pursuing high-quality trade deals."

Mr Ciobo said there was also potential for countries such as China to join the TPP.

"The original architecture was to enable other countries to join," he said.

"Certainly I know Indonesia expressed a possible interest and there would be scope for China if we were able to reformulate it."

Japan is the only country to ratify the deal to date, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterating his commitment to the TPP during a phone call with Mr Turnbull last night.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said the deal was "not going to see the light of day".

Mr Shorten said pursuing the agreement on the hopes that the US would change its mind was "the peak of delusional absurdity".

"Ever since Donald Trump got elected back in November, Mr Turnbull should have realised that the Trans-Pacific Partnership was dead," he said.

January 20, 2017

Jamie Oliver chain opens in Bangkok

Jamie Oliver's Italian restaurant has opened in Bangkok. (Photo courtesy of Siam Piwat)

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Jamie's Italian restaurant has opened in Bangkok.

The restaurant at Siam Discovery is the first to open under a joint venture between Siam Piwat Co and Hotel Properties Ltd, a Singaporean hospitality company that holds the franchise to the restaurant chain owned by British celebrity chef Jamie Oliver.

The partnership is part of Siam Piwat's business strategy to expand its own food and beverage business to drive sales in the long term. Siam Piwat is the operator of Siam Discovery and Siam Center.

Both sides signed an agreement to operate Jamie's Italian restaurants late last year.

Prior to this, Siam Piwat has operated its own multi-fashion store for several years, supporting its policy to increase income via new business channels apart from running shopping malls.

Moreover, the company is focusing on earning additional income from more business activities related to food, fashion and innovative products. This will make its complexes not only shopping destinations, but also venues for various experiences that can respond to dynamic customer demand and fierce retail competition.

"Jamie's Italian is a casual dining restaurant, which will become a new business pillar to boost our long-term growth," said Chanisa Kaewruen, deputy managing director for marketing events and business relations at Siam Piwat Co.

She said consumer spending has generally returned to normal since the end of last year. About 40% of customers visiting its stores are foreign tourists, up from 30% last year. Of the total foreign tourists, 60% are Chinese shoppers.

According to the company's survey on Chinese tourists, they want something new and exciting when visiting Thailand.

Therefore, the company introduced a revamped look for over 40 top brand shops at its three retail centres this year.

Gourmet Garden, which brings together over 30 renowned restaurants, opened this year at the Siam Paragon shopping complex.

Moreover, Siam Center introduced Lush, a UK top organic cosmetics brand, opening its first branch in Thailand and being one of the world's biggest stores.

In addition, the company will allocate 1.2 billion baht for marketing three shopping complexes this year.

Yesterday, Siam Piwat announced it will invest 50 million baht to arrange its Chinese New Year campaign at Siam Paragon, Siam Center and Siam Discovery from Jan 26-Mar 12.

The company forecasts over 200,000 shoppers per day to visit its three shopping centres during this period, with sales expected to increase by 15-20%.

B4bn Mekong freight centre set to be built in Chiang Rai

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A cross-docking centre worth more than four billion baht will be built in the northern province of Chiang Rai as a freight transport hub in the Mekong River basin.

Speaking during a market sounding event for the project yesterday, Land Transport Department (DLT) deputy director-general Kamol Buranapong said the intermodal freight centre valued at 4.86 billion baht will be built on 330 rai of land in Chiang Khong district.

The centre would serve as a hub linking water and land freight transport between Thailand, Laos and China in the Mekong River basin while Chiang Rai will be promoted as a logistics city of Asean.

Of the total budget, 2.86 billion baht was earmarked for land expropriation and construction and two billion baht for management and maintenance costs.

Under the 2.86-billion baht budget, Mr Kamol said land expropriation had been completed at a cost of 780 million baht.

The first phase will require 1.4 billion baht which has already been approved by the cabinet.

For the second phase which will require 649 million baht, the department is in the process of seeking cabinet's approval.

Mr Kamol said the department will also forward the project proposal with comments from the public sector to the Transport Ministry for its approval, expected in June.

Bidding will be announced at the end of this year and the construction proposal will be forwarded to the cabinet for approval.

Construction is scheduled for next year with the project to be complete in 2019. The centre is expected to be launched in 2020.

Asst Prof Chackrit Duangphastra, an adviser to the project, said the cross-docking centre will be implemented under the public-private partnership scheme with a 30-year concession for a private operator.

The government will invest in land while the private sector will look after management and maintenance costs.

The ratio of revenues between government and a private operator are 80:20.

Vegemite back in Australian hands after US$345m deal

Jars of Vegemite are on sale at a supermarket in Canberra. AP

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CANBERRA: Vegemite, the salty, brown spread beloved in Australia, is going home, purchased by an Australian dairy company from the maker of Oreos.

Mondelez International Inc said on Wednesday that it was selling Vegemite and other Australian and New Zealand grocery products to Bega Cheese in a deal worth about US$345.3 million (A$460 million).

Deerfield, Illinois-based Mondelez said it planned to focus on other products like Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolate.

The sale was welcomed by many Australians who complain that iconic Down Under brands, including Foster's beer and Speedo swimwear, have been sold to foreign companies.

"This is the best __news I've heard for a long time,'' Australian entrepreneur Dick Smith, who developed an Australian-owned yeast extract alternative called OzEmite, told Australian Broadcasting Corp yesterday.

"To bring Vegemite back into Australian hands after over 60 years of it being in American hands, it's great because it means the profit will stay in Australia.''

A byproduct of brewing beer, Vegemite was introduced in the 1920s and is an Australian household staple.

Those who haven't been brought up on the spread, long marketed as a rich source of Vitamin B and ideal for healthy children, often find it a difficult taste to acquire.

President Barack Obama once said: "It's horrible.''

Australians abroad commonly bemoan how difficult Vegemite is to find outside their country.

Although it remains by far the country's most popular yeast-based spread, its market share and sales have slipped in recent years, according to Euromonitor International. Last year, Vegemite's sales in Australia were $78.5 million, down from $86.9 million in 2011.

Barry Irvin, Bega Cheese's executive chairman, attributed the recent declines to changing breakfast habits.

He described Vegemite and Bega as a natural fit: Cheese and Vegemite are a popular taste combination on sandwiches.

"The wonderful heritage and values that Vegemite represents and its importance to Australian culture makes its combination with Bega Cheese truly exciting,'' Irvin said.

Mondelez had licensing rights for Kraft's products overseas after it split with Kraft Foods Inc in 2012. Mondelez says it is holding onto Philadelphia cream cheese in Australia.

The sale also includes other local Australian grocery products, peanut butter and salad dressings that use the Kraft name under licensing.

Bega Cheese makes Kraft cheeses for Mondelez and was looking for opportunities to grow beyond dairy.

"The diversification adds stability to Bega Cheese,'' Irvin said.

Michael Mitchell, a Mondelez spokesman, said about 200 employees would be offered roles "on comparable terms'' with Bega Cheese.

He said a manufacturing plant would transfer to Bega, but that there would be no closures.

For non-Australians, the mention of "a Vegemite sandwich'' in Australian band Men at Work's 1983 hit song Down Under may be their only exposure to the stuff.

Not so back home, where it can be found in 90% of Australian households.

An Australian prime minister once claimed that more Australians know the lyrics of a Vegemite advertising jingle written in 1954 than know the Australian national anthem. ap