December 1, 2016

Australian economy faces big challenges in 2017 with mining bust a long way from over

It appears Donald Trump is no longer the devil.

The OECD's secretary-general Angel Gurria has joined a growing list of those hoping America's new leader will do more good than harm.

Mr Gurria was prepared to disregard Donald Trump's strong protectionist streak in the hope that he might initiate a global trend away from the use of low interest rates to stimulate growth.

Instead the OECD wants governments to consider prudent, well-targeted spending measures.

"If policymakers can avoid the pitfalls of protectionism and seize the opportunity for collective fiscal action offered by still very low interest rates, combined with high-priority structural reforms, the global economy can at last escape from the low growth trap," he said.

The organisation has revised up its global growth forecasts.

From 2.9 per cent this year, the world growth rate is predicted to jump to more than 3 per cent next year, due largely to Donald Trump's stimulus measures including massive tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

But Melbourne University professor of economics Ross Garnaut said his spending plans are unnecessarily damaging.

"Unless he backtracks completely on his program, we're going to end up with much bigger US budget deficits at a time when the US economy's been growing more strongly," he argued.

'Dangerous time for America, the world and Australia'

The need to finance rising deficits would trigger an inflow of capital forcing the US dollar higher, making American industry less competitive and playing back into Trump's protectionism.

It also means more aggressive interest rate hikes.

"I think this is a dangerous time for America, for the world and for Australia," warned Professor Garnaut.

"In Australia over the past few years we have seen the growth of protectionist ideas. It would be very easy for these to be strengthened by developments in America."

Rising public sector debt does not appear to be a major concern at the OECD.

"Low interest rates have opened the window of opportunity by reducing government debt servicing costs, and increasing the so-called fiscal space," Mr Gurria observed.

"It is a window that may not remain open for long. So the opportunity should be seized."

Concerns about Australia's triple A credit rating were nowhere to be seen in the OECD's commentary on the domestic economy.

It argued there is space for fiscal loosening given Australia low public-debt burden. It also called for the introduction of more efficient taxes, such as a land tax and a higher or broader GST.

But with the Government struggling in the polls, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann was quick to shut down any hint he might consider revisiting the GST debate.

"These are issues which are will and truly settled. They were settled in the lead up to the last election," he said.

Transition from mining investment has years to run: economist

Australia's economic growth economy is expected to remain tepid - below 3 per cent until 2018, according to the OECD.

But the transition is taking place.

The Reserve Bank says mining investment has a bit further to fall, but about 80 per cent of the adjustment has already occurred.

But economic consultancy BIS Shrapnel, which monitors investment activity, disputes that estimate.

BIS Shrapnel's chief economist Frank Gelber said the Reserve Bank is being wildly optimistic.

"A lot of commentators, including the journalists and economists who should know a lot better, seem to think that this transition is already well and truly happening. It's not," he argued.

"This is just the very beginning of what will be a long and very difficult process."

Mr Gelber said it will take years to rebuild industries that were decimated due to the mining boom as the Australian dollar soared, and capital and labour were sucked into the resources sector.

On the other side of the ledger, the deterioration in mining investment still has a way to go.

"We're only about halfway through the falling mining investment. The next two years will see the bulk of it," he observed.

"So that's another shock to the economy that we'll have to whether before we come out the other end."

Interest rate rises a long way off: Garnaut

If Frank Gelber is right, the economy will not deliver the improvements necessary to see interest rates higher at the end of next year, as the OECD predicted.

The Paris-based organisation said interest rates are expected to rise towards the end of 2017 and this is appropriate given the likely move to higher rates globally and an improvement in the Australian economy, as well as the need to take some of the heat out of the property market.

But Australia still has a significant underemployment problem and wages growth is extremely weak, so Ross Garnaut said the economy's performance will not support higher interest rates next year.

Under those circumstances targeting the property sector would be foolish.

"It's never appropriate to set your interest rates which affect the economy as a whole, the exchange rate, for a single sector and, in this case, a single sector in two cities - Sydney and Melbourne," he added.

That is a job for the regulators, who might need to take a tougher approach.

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