Australian agricultural exports to China, Japan and Korea grew just $515 million during the last financial year, representing a 3 per cent jump.
That rise came despite political rhetoric that free trade agreements (FTAs) would allow farmers to immediately tap into lucrative markets and reshape Australia's economy as the mining boom wound down.
In the coming weeks, Australia will mark the second anniversary of its FTAs with Korea and Japan, and the first anniversary of the much-lauded Chinese deal on December 20.
ABC Rural has reviewed all agricultural exports, as listed by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), during the 2015 and 2016 financial years.
Two-way trade increases with China, falls with Korea and Japan
Trade experts warn the gains made in these countries are most likely the result of commodities already having market access, rather than the newly adopted FTAs.
They said it was too early to rate the effectiveness of the FTAs because some commodities would have their tariffs cut over 10 years.
It comes as recent KPMG modelling found a lack of market access had cost Australian businesses $14 billion in unrealised revenue from the three FTAs.
Industries also point to a weaker Australian dollar during the past year for having made exports cheaper and more appealing in foreign markets.
The gains agriculture made come as overall two-way trade with the three countries fell 2.5 per cent in the 2016 financial year.
Agricultural trade with China rose $48 million, up 0.5 per cent on the previous year.
Overall, two-way trade with China rose $3.3 billion, up 2.38 per cent.
Bigger agricultural gains were made in Japan and Korea at a time when the value of two-way trade with both countries fell.
Agricultural exports to Korea rose $339 million, while in Japan it rose $128 million.
Two-way trade with Japan fell $7.74 billion and $1.44 billion with Korea.
China: Winners and losers
China is Australia's biggest market for agricultural exports, with the trade accounting for about a fifth of all products heading overseas.
Farmers are regularly told China's growing middle class has an insatiable appetite from Australia's "clean and green" products like dairy, meats, fruits and vegetables.
The FTA, when fully implemented, will see China eliminate import tariffs on about 95 per cent of Australian products.
Dairy, beef, wine, seafood and horticultural products were all listed as the big winners when the deal was inked.
Based on DFAT's figures, the value of two-way trade increased 2.38 per cent to $141.89 billion.
The gains for agriculture were less, up 0.5 per cent, taking the overall value of agriculture trade to $9.88 billion.
This figure only includes six months of barley trade, which was the second-most-valuable agricultural commodity in 2015, because figures for this commodity are released after a six-month lag.
While rhetoric regarding China is focused on beef and dairy, wool continues to be the backbone of agricultural trade.
China takes more than 75 per cent of Australia's total clip, with the commodity accounting for a fifth of agricultural exports to the country.
Wool exports only grew about 1 per cent. But the continued dominance highlights the argument from experts and industries that market access is just as important as having tariffs removed.
Food products the big winners
The biggest winner during the year was so-called edible products and preparations, which include yeasts, baking powders, soups, sauces, condiments, mustards, ice-cream, and prepared food not included in other trade categories.
These exports jumped from Australia's 10th-largest commodity in 2015 to the second-largest in 2016, rising 225 per cent to $966 million.
Wood exports were another winner, with woodchips and rough exports rising in the rankings.
Fruit and nut exports, the latter of which have enjoyed major increases in plantings in recent years, rose 154 per cent to almost $239 million.
Most fruits and nuts will be tariff-free by 2019, down from as high as 30 per cent in some cases.
These exports have historically entered China through so-called grey channels, where produce is initially exported to Hong Kong and then taken into the mainland.
The citrus industry has been a leader in opening up "front door" access to reduce the risk of trade suddenly being shut down.
China has become the biggest market for citrus, with exports up 50 per cent.
But other fruits, including avocado, have not had the same success, with market access holding the trade back.
This was the fear that James Campbell, a former China-based ANZ executive turned Australian beef exporter, had when he described the FTA as "a ticket to [the] dance, but it's not an automatic money machine".
When the FTA was signed, China was Australia's third-largest wine market.
At the time, the industry warned the FTA would not be worth anything unless it came with enhanced trade relationships with China.
A 54 per cent jump in alcoholic beverages, worth more than $417 million in 2016, helped drive China to the top of Australia's wine exports, surpassing the UK and the US.
Milk, cream, whey and yoghurt exports increased $100 million, up almost 60 per cent to represent Australia's 13th largest export to China in 2016.
Mixed experience for meat producers
While beef made gains, up 14 per cent to $886 million, it was more than offset by losses from other meats.
There was a $155 million drop in non-beef meat exports, falling 35 per cent to $285 million.
The biggest loser of the year appears to be soft oilseeds and oleaginous fruits, which include canola exports.
The value of exports fell 96 per cent, with the $303 million fall taking it from ninth-largest export to 27th.
That came as farmers battled dry conditions that prompted reduced plantings and a canola crop virus that reduced yields.
Cotton was another loser. It is a crop China has heavily invested in in Australia, buying Australia's largest cotton farm Cubbie Station in 2012.
But exports fell from the fourth to fifth-largest thanks to a 26 per cent drop in value.
This came as the grains industry warned the FTA would do little to boost exports from cotton, wheat, sugar, rice and oilseed producers.
It is too early to assess barley exports because of a six-month lag before figures are released.
Barley was Australia's second-largest export in 2015, worth $1.46 billion.
In the first six months of 2015-16, only $448 million worth of barley had been exported to China.
Japan: Winners and losers
The Australia-Japan FTA, when fully implemented, will remove tariffs off 97 per cent of Australian exports.
In 2014, Japan was Australia's third-largest market for agricultural exports, behind China and the United States, taking about 9.5 per cent of exports.
Beef is by far Australia's major agricultural export to Japan.
The value of beef and most of the top five commodities exported to Japan remained steady between 2015 and 2016.
The exception was woodchips, the value of which jumped 37 per cent to almost $404 million, making it the third-largest export.
Fruit and nuts rose from the 13th-largest to ninth-largest export thanks to a 66 per cent jump in value, to be worth $107 million in 2016.
The sugar industry has been a vocal critic of Australia's recent FTAs.
Sugars, molasses and honey jump 58pc
Sugar is a commodity that already had market access, with Australia accounting for a third of Japanese sugar imports.
At the time of ratification, the Australian Sugar Industry Alliance described the Japanese FTA as "disappointing" and likely to lead to "very little change in Australia's access to the Japanese market".
In 2016, exports of sugars, molasses and honey jumped 58 per cent to almost $262 million, to become the seventh-largest export.
While the Government trumpeted the benefits the deal would have for dairy, the concerns the industry voiced have so far proven true.
While cheese exports remain flat, up 1 per cent, milk cream, whey and yoghurt exports fell 47 per cent, losing $24 million in value.
Butter exports, albeit a small industry to Japan, fell 15 per cent.
As with China, oilseed exports to Japan tanked. There was a 54 per cent decline, down $107 million to $90.9 million.
That meant the commodity fell from the seventh-largest export to the 10th-largest.
Korea: Winners and losers
Korea is the smallest, and oldest, of the three Asian FTA markets for Australian farmers.
This market represented the largest gains for agricultural exports during 2015-16, rising 12 per cent.
Like Japan, beef is the major export to Korea. The market added another 24 per cent.
As the top export, it was worth $1.32 billion, more than double the next-largest export, sugar.
The top four commodities kept their rankings in 2016, with sugar up 17 per cent to $617 million and wheat up 15 per cent to more than $406 million.
Wool was another commodity that benefitted from enhanced trade with Korea during the year, rising 57 per cent to $127 million.
Those gains came as competitor fibre cotton fell 70 per cent.
A $24 million slump in cotton exports meant the commodity fell from Australia's seventh-largest export to Korea to 13th.
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