December 15, 2016

Federal Reserve interest rate rises will reverberate across financial markets

Janet Yellen was expected to confirm the obvious; that the interest rate cycle finally had turned.

What wasn't anticipated was the speed at which the Federal Reserve would hike borrowing costs.

Prior to last night, most members of the US central bank were talking about two rate rises next year. Now they're talking three. And that's before the impact of President elect Donald Trump's huge spending program kicks in which, if he lives up to his promises, could light a fire under inflation.

If that happens, global interest rates could soar. It's a prospect that is spooking economists and traders.

Some cynics point out that this time last year, when the Fed raised official rates for the first time in a decade, members were talking about four hikes in 2016, and that the current expectations should be taken with a large dose of salt.

That's dangerous thinking. If anything, the US central bank was wrong to not lift interest rates months ago. In fact it should have started doing it two years ago. Now the pressure is on to go harder and faster next year.

And that means the huge distortions in global property and financial markets - at record highs despite anaemic global growth - that have been created by the great monetary experiment of cutting rates to zero and beyond will start to unwind. It is a process that will take years and likely deliver equal doses of pain and opportunity.

Days of cheap debt are numbered

Why does any of this matter to us? Global rates will still be close to their lowest in 5,000 years, even if the Fed proceeds with three hikes next year. In any case, official Australian rates are likely to remain at record lows through 2017.

But that's not the issue.

Regardless of what the Reserve Bank of Australia decides next year, we will all be paying more for debt for the simple reason that our banks source a large portion of their funding from offshore. That funding will cost more.

Given our household debt is among the highest in the world, and a large number of Australians have hocked themselves to the hilt, any rise, no matter how small, will hurt.

Rising mortgage costs inevitably lead to a lift in defaults which has a double whammy; it puts pressure on housing prices and hurts banks.

Australia along for the ride, for good and ill

The fallout from last night's decision already is ricocheting through financial markets. The greenback is soaring. Bond prices are crashing. Money is flowing out of emerging economies and high risk ventures and back into the US.

As a result, currencies like the Australian dollar are under pressure along with commodity prices, for the simple reason they are priced in US dollars.

That's a positive for us. For years, the Reserve Bank has been trying to cajole the currency lower, to make the economy more competitive.

As the world's biggest economy, the US holds all the cards. Under Trump, it has put the world on notice that the era of austerity and cheap money has ended. From now on it will be big spending and higher interest rates.

While that had to happen, managing the transition will be the tricky part.

Certainly, financial markets are bracing for a period of unprecedented volatility. And as a nation hugely exposed to global trade, Australia will be buffeted by the winds of economic change.

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