November 1, 2016

Reserve Bank leaves interest rates on hold at 1.5pc, cites 'brisk' home price growth

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold at a record low 1.5 per cent for the third straight month.

Rates last fell in August, when the bank elected to lower its cash rate target from 1.75 per cent to a fresh record low of 1.5 per cent.

The decision to stay on hold for November came as no surprise to economists, only five out of 60 of whom had expected rates to fall this month.

November has, in the past, been a favoured month for the RBA to move, with six consecutive Melbourne Cup Day rate changes between 2006 and 2011.

However, Cup Day rate moves appear to have gone out to long odds since, with the bank sitting pat for the fifth straight year.

It appears the housing market has returned to the forefront of the RBA's thinking, after the bank had played down price growth in Sydney and Melbourne repeatedly over recent months.

"Turnover in the housing market and growth in lending for housing have slowed over the past year," observed new RBA governor Philip Lowe in his post-meeting statement.

"The rate of increase in housing prices is also lower than it was a year ago, although prices in some markets have been rising briskly over the past few months."

The latest property price indices from CoreLogic, released this morning, showed home prices rose 0.5 per cent nationally over October and 7.5 per cent over the past year, with stronger gains in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

Dr Lowe also had a warning for property investors that this price growth is unlikely to be sustained.

"Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities," he noted, repeating consistent warnings from the RBA about the risk of a glut and price falls in some areas.

"Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades."

No more rate cuts?

Some analysts are interpreting the banks concluding statement - "the board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time" - as indicative that interest rates have bottomed.

"The Reserve Bank has clearly signalled that it is happy with the current level of the cash rate. It has also signalled that rate cuts are off the agenda for now," CommSec chief economist Craig James wrote in a note.

"Rates may have bottomed but that doesn't mean they are likely to rise within the next year."

It is a view that many analysts are being pushed towards, even those who had been predicting further rate cuts, such as Capital Economics.

"While the chances of further rate cuts have diminished, it is far too soon to conclude that the RBA's low underlying inflation problem has been solved," concluded its chief economist Paul Dales, who is still retaining his forecast of two more rate cuts.

"So if underlying inflation fails to rise as fast as the RBA hopes in the second half of next year, then the bank may yet cut rates to 1 per cent."

Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans is of the view that something will have to go pretty dramatically wrong with the Australian economy to prompt further rate cuts.

"The policy easing in 2016 has been in response to the inflation shock earlier in the year but now policy is likely to refocus on the real economy," he wrote in his analysis.

"Our current forecast of 3.3 per cent growth next year, supported by 1.6 per cent growth in employment, is unlikely to signal the need for lower rates.

"However, with inflation only likely to track along the bottom of the 2-3 per cent target band next year there will be scope to ease further should growth, and the labour market in particular, profoundly disappoint.

"That is not our forecast but we acknowledge that if rates are to move next year it will be down rather than up in 2017."

Financial markets seem to agree, with the Australian dollar heading about half a cent higher to 76.5 US cents.

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