Recap: Global equities were affected by poor sentiment led by European stocks, which fell for the entire week on disappointing corporate results. The European Central Bank is expected to now consider further stimulus to spur the lacklustre euro zone. The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is seen as moving closer to raising interest rates as third-quarter GDP growth of 2.9% exceeded expectations.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,491.32 to 1,508.89 points before closing on Friday at 1,494.44, down 0.4% from the previous week, in moderate turnover averaging 50.28 billion baht a day. Institutional investors were net sellers of 348.14 million baht. Brokers were net buyers of 1.26 billion baht, foreign investors sold 4 billion and retail investors bought 3.09 billion.
Big movers: Newcomer Sahakol Equipment (SQ) finished its first day at 4.00 baht, up 25% from its IPO price of 3.20 baht, and closed the week at 4.14 baht. Banpu Power (BPP) made its SET debut on Friday, closing at 27.25 baht, up 29.8% from its IPO price at 21.00 baht, making it the week's top gainer. SUPER led in volume and turnover, down 4.7% to 1.62 baht. __news was the top loser, plunging 14.3% to 0.12 baht.
Newsmakers: Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong said the economic growth outlook for the fourth quarter remained healthy, as consumption was already recovering after a short-term slowdown. The Fiscal Policy Office maintained its forecast of 3.3% GDP expansion for the year.
The National Economic and Social Development Board is standing pat with its 3.3% growth projection for 2016 despite concerns about a slowdown in recent weeks. It said growth would be driven by healthy tourism, recovering domestic consumption, and accelerated state spending and measures to assist low-income groups. The NESDB will announce official third-quarter GDP figures on Nov 21.
Mr Apisak said the government's e-tax scheme would be introduced in mid-2017 and would begin with large firms. It may take around three years to encourage businesses of all sizes to enter the online tax system, designed to enhance tax collection and spur digital economy development.
BPP, the power flagship of BANPU, made its market debut after raising 13.6 billion baht through an IPO to finance expansion of its renewable-power business domestically and internationally to 2,400 megawatts (MW) of capacity by 2018. It has a long-term target of 4,300MW by 2025, compared with 1,913 MW now. It also has 643MW in solar projects under development with power purchase agreements (PPA) already in place.
PTTEP reported a third-quarter net profit of 5.4 billion baht in line with forecasts. The figure was up 105% on the quarter, supported by non-recurring gains, and reversed a loss of 46.2 billion in the same period last year that resulted from a huge impairment charge. Core profit still declined 20% from a quarter earlier to 4.4 billion baht.
The European Central Bank will decide in December on how to prolong its quantitative easing programme, policymaker Ewald Nowotny said. Earlier President Mario Draghi said the ECB would keep a "very substantial degree of monetary accommodation", dismissing talk of an abrupt end to the €80-billion monthly asset buying programme.
Thai exports in September rose 3.4% year-on-year, the second straight month of gains, to $19.46 billion while imports were up 5.6% to $16.91 billion. The Commerce Ministry said the increase reflected strong expansion of machinery and chemical products, as well as agricultural products. It expects growth to continue for the rest of the year.
Public debt in August was 5.95 trillion baht, or 42.6% of GDP, down from 42.9% in July. The Public Debt Management Office forecast a peak of 53% in 2019 based on expected borrowing of 300-400 billion baht a year for infrastructure investments.
SCC reported a Q3 net profit of 14.1 billion baht (down 12% on the quarter but up 57% year-on-year), beating the Bloomberg consensus of 13.2 billion baht due to deferred tax assets of 1.8 billion baht.
The Mass Rapid Transit Authority expects to open bidding and start construction next year on three rail route extensions in Bangkok. They are the 23.6km Purple Line route from Tao Pun to Rat Burana; the 8km Blue Line route from Bang Khae to Phutthamonthon Sai 4; and the 17.5km Orange Line extension from the Thailand Cultural Center to Taling Chan.
The Tourism and Sports Ministry projects 2016 tourism revenue will reach 2.4 trillion baht as expected, citing satisfactory growth in the first nine months. This is despite a slight impact from cancellations of entertainment activities during the 30-day mourning period for King Bhumibol and the crackdown on zero-dollar tours. The latter could reduce Chinese arrivals by 20% in the last quarter, bringing full-year Chinese arrivals to 9.21 million, short of the target of 10.1 million.
Coming up this week: Thailand will release October inflation data tomorrow. The Bank of Japan meets the same day.
The US Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow and Wednesday but with the election just a week away, expect no __news that would unsettle markets.
Japan will report October consumer confidence on Wednesday. Thai consumer confidence figures for October are due on Thursday. The Bank of England also meets Thursday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities suggests high-growth stocks such as CK, EGCO, GLOBAL, KAMART, QH and WHA; firms with expected net profit growth exceeding 20% such as ANAN, BCH, CENTEL, CPN, DRT, GFPT, LPN, PYLON, SYNEX and UNIQ; and those likely to show improved H2 profits over H1, including ANAN, BEM, BLA, ILINK, JWD, KAMART, SAWAD, SEAFCO, SPA, TPIPL, TTCL and UNIQ.
Bualuang Securities recommends high-growth stocks that will report good Q3 results, such as TACC, ITEL, SEAFCO, BLA and MTLS.
Technical view: Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,480 and resistance at 1,520. Thanachart Securities puts support at 1,480 with resistance at 1,520.
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