Nopporn: WTO sees weak global trade
Despite the unexpected rise in August shipments, exporters are maintaining their forecast of a 2% contraction this year, citing the baht's continued upward trend and the fragile economic prospects worldwide.
"Risk factors are still bountiful, as shown by the latest report on trade statistics and outlook for 2016 by the World Trade Organization, which cut its forecast for global trade growth to 1.7% this year from its earlier-projected 2.8%, implying the slowest growth pace since the start of the world economic crisis of 2008," said Nopporn Thepsithar, president of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC).
"The WTO also cut its prediction for next year's trade growth to 1.8-3.1% from 3.6%, as it believes overall global trade remains weak."
Mr Nopporn sees key risk factors in the uncertainty of the world's oil prices after members of the oil-producing cartel decided last week to cut their oil production, the cloudy Fed rate hike outlook, international conflict and growing terrorism.
He also voiced concern about the ability of Thai exporters to catch up with growing competition in innovation, product quality and growing consumer demand.
Vallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of TNSC, said he is worried about the country's economic health in the final quarter, pointing out that state infrastructure changes may not have a fast enough impact, and the government's zero-dollar tour crackdown may adversely affect Chinese tourism in Thailand.
TMB Analytics, a research unit of TMB Bank, forecasts Thailand's exports to see 2.3% growth next year, after outbound shipments fall for the fourth year running in 2016.
The robust economic growth of neighbouring countries will contribute to Thailand's export growth in 2017.
The country's export value to Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) -- a rare source of strong economic growth -- is estimated to rise by 10.5% next year, compared to a 5.9% fall this year, said Naris Sathapholdeja, senior vice-president of TMB Analytics.
Food and drinks, farming products and auto parts will be the drivers for Thailand's export growth, he said.
The country's exports to Asean are also estimated to expand 3.9% next year from a contraction of 4.4% this year.
Despite the predicted growth in exports -- which accounts for 70% of Thailand's economic value -- public investment will power growth in 2017, he said.
The research house estimated public investment's growth will rise 9.3% next year, a slower pace from 12.5% predicted for this year due to high-base effect.
TMB Analytics predicts GDP growth of 3.5% next year. It has raised its forecast on the Thai economic growth to 3.3% this year from its earlier projection of 2.8%, following upbeat growth of 3.4% in the first half.
Private investment growth is expected to lift to 2.2% next year, from 0.9% this year.
Despite signs of better private investment next year, the estimated growth pace is expected to remain tepid due to weak private sector confidence, he said.
Typically, private investment growth should exceed GDP growth. If the economy grows 3.5% next year, private investment should surge by 4% to balance economic structure, he added.
"Higher Thai direct investment (TDI) abroad, in CLMV particularly, also contributes to low private investment growth," Mr Naris said.
"TDI overseas for the first half amounted to 606 billion baht, the highest value in the past several years. Thailand should turn to CLMV to be our supply chain, rather than export destinations in long run, and this will support the country's move towards Thailand 4.0."
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