October 31, 2016

Interest rate cut at long odds but some economists back the roughy

Shortly before they are off and running in Melbourne for the Cup, the Reserve Bank board will be considering interest rates, contemplating something else that's off and running - the east coast housing market.

While new governor Philip Lowe has been quick to point out that all property markets are not equal - some are losing ground, such as Perth and Darwin - there is considerable heat in the major population centres of Sydney and Melbourne, the current source of Australia's economic growth and jobs.

"The Reserve Bank mentioned it explicitly in its financial stability review a couple of weeks ago, the risks around the apartment market and very high household debt," observed Stephen Walters, the chief economist at the Institute of Company Directors.

"When the central bank's talking about that in public, it's clearly a pretty large blip on their radar screen."

Fellow economist Carol Austin is looking beyond household balance sheets to the rising tide of resentment and anger reflected in the political process around the world.

Overcommitted property owners vulnerable to an economic shock or higher interest rates are not the only threat to stability, the RBA also needs to consider those locked out of the property market.

"If housing affordability causes social unrest, causes a lack of confidence in our system, it will impair the ability of the RBA to do its job properly going forward," she said.

This is not worrying Citi's chief economist Paul Brennan, one of only a few tipping a rate cut.

He has faith in the banking regulator's efforts aimed at keeping a lid on the property market through tighter lending restrictions.

Other factors raised by Dr Lowe are a bigger concern, such as the jobs market which is in weaker shape than it looks because the official unemployment rate does not capture record amounts of underemployment.

"There does seem to be a lot of people who want to work longer hours than what they're currently working, a lot of people working part time that want to work full-time," Mr Brennan observed.

Inflation likely to rise on commodity rebound

Right now, most market players are buying the Reserve Bank's line that inflation will gradually pick up because business confidence is stronger, a recovery in wages growth is just around the corner and, most significantly, the deterioration in mining has almost run its course.

"Inflation is a backward looking measure," countered Ms Austin.

"We're seeing stronger commodity prices, which will feed into inflation further down the track.

"We're seeing a better tone coming into the resources sector, which will contribute to more jobs, it'll contribute to higher prices in areas that have been really squeezed because of the decline in commodity prices."

Much will hinge on the commodity price outlook.

Citi is predicting the recent commodity recovery, so helpful to the Australian economy, will be short-lived because supply is ramping up again in response to the higher prices.

It suggested the task of lifting inflation back to the target zone will be difficult.

"Given that inflation is so far below the bottom of the target ... looking ahead growth in the economy might sort of slow a bit from the 3.25 per cent that we've been running at," said Mr Brennan.

"So I think that another 25 [basis points of interest rate reduction] now might mean that next year they don't need to do say another two lots of 25 that we've seen in the last two years."

Shoot now or save rate ammo for economic crisis?

Others argue that Philip Lowe needs to preserve his precious interest rate ammunition for a crisis, but not Stephen Walters.

"I don't buy into that argument that they want to preserve their ammo," Mr Walters argued.

"Why? They've got the currency to move. They can actually hope the Fed raises interest rates and therefore the Aussie dollar will come down, so I think they're waiting to see that that happens first."

But the RBA might need to use some of that precious ammo sooner than people think.

"A Trump victory, for instance, may have a great impact on financial markets," Ms Austin said.

"The Reserve Bank would want to be able to respond in the event that we saw great turbulence in our market."

In the meantime, Australians will be left to enjoy the national distraction that is the Melbourne Cup as the Reserve Bank sits on its hands.

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